Identifying Interaction Force Pairs - Physics

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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USD bears beat a retreat after FOMC minutes

Saxo Bank




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Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
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The Henry Jackson Initiative by Lady Forester

While reasearching Epstein's known associates, an interesting individual stood out. Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Lady de Rothschild. No intention of this being a Rothschild Conspiracy. If your are uninterested to read the content below, scroll down to Comment to get my summary and take on this information. As always please Fact check this.
(HJI) is a bi-partisan, transatlantic movement of business leaders, senior policy makers and academics focused on promoting a more Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI calls for international collaboration from businesses and other organizations to encourage the widest possible adoption of programs that improve capitalism as a driver of wellbeing for society.
The HJI grew out of the Task Force project For Inclusive Capitalism, which sought solutions to the effects on society and business as a result of the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 and the dislocations caused by capitalism’s practice over the past 30 years. The Taskforce, which was co-chaired by Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director, McKinsey & Company, and Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, CEO, El Rothschild, published its inaugural paper Towards a More Inclusive Capitalism in May 2012. The report sets out three pathways for business action that lie at the heart of the HJI’s mandate:
  1. Education for employment: addressing the gap between employer needs and employee skills
  2. Nurture start-ups and SMEs: mentoring small businesses and improving access to credit for them
  3. Reform management and governance for the long term: replacing today’s focus on short term performance
The HJI exists to highlight and support businesses and other organizations working to promote the broadest possible adoption of best practices in these and other areas related to Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI believes there is an urgent and compelling demand for business to act to address the greatest systemic issues facing capitalism today. The HJI also believes that business is best positioned to lead innovations in areas that need them the most.

WHO WAS HENRY JACKSON?

Henry Martin "Scoop" Jackson (May 31, 1912 – September 1, 1983) was an American politician who served as a U.S. Representative (1941–1953) and U.S. Senator (1953–1983) from the state of Washington). A Cold War liberal and anti-Communist Democrat), Jackson supported higher military spending and a hard line against the Soviet Union, while also supporting social welfare programs, civil rights, and labor unions.
Jackson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously in 1984; Ronald Reagan called him "one of the greatest lawmakers of our century," and stated:
Scoop Jackson was convinced that there's no place for partisanship in foreign and defense policy. He used to say, 'In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics.' His sense of bipartisanship was not only natural and complete; it was courageous. He wanted to be President, but I think he must have known that his outspoken ideas on the security of the Nation would deprive him of the chance to be his party's nominee in 1972 and '76. Still, he would not cut his convictions to fit the prevailing style. I'm deeply proud, as he would have been, to have Jackson Democrats serve in my administration. I'm proud that some of them have found a home here.

Criticism

Jackson was known as a hawkish Democrat. He was often criticized for his support for the Vietnam War and his close ties to the defense industries of his state. His proposal of Fort Lawton as a site for an anti-ballistic missile system was strongly opposed by local residents, and Jackson was forced to modify his position on the location of the site several times, but continued to support ABM development. American Indian rights activists who protested Jackson's plan to give Fort Lawton to Seattle, instead of returning it to local tribes, staged a sit-in. In the eventual compromise, most of Fort Lawton became Discovery Park), with 20 acres (8.1 ha) leased to United Indians of All Tribes, who opened the Daybreak Star Cultural Center there in 1977.
Opponents derided him as "the Senator from Boeing" and a "whore for Boeing" because of his consistent support for additional military spending on weapons systems and accusations of wrongful contributions from the company; in 1965, 80% of Boeing's contracts were military. Jackson and Magnuson's campaigning for an expensive government supersonic transport plane project eventually failed.
After his death, critics pointed to Jackson's support for Japanese American internment camps during World War II as a reason to protest the placement of his bust at the University of Washington.Jackson was both an enthusiastic defender of the evacuation and a staunch proponent of the campaign to keep the Japanese-Americans from returning to the Pacific Coast after the war.

Jackson Papers controversy

Senator Jackson's documents were donated to the University of Washington shortly after his death in 1983, and have been archived there ever since.When the materials were donated in 1983, university staff removed all information considered classified at the time.Additional materials were added to the collection until 1995.
At some point, library staff discovered a classified document in the collection and sent it to the government for declassification. In response, in the summer of 2004, a man who identified himself as an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called the University of Washington asking to inspect Senator Jackson's archived documents housed there. He found a document labelled as classified and showed this to a librarian.[48] In February 2005, 22 years after Jackson's death, a five-person team including staff of the CIA, Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the Information Security Oversight Office came to library to review all of Jackson's papers to remove anything still considered classified, or reclassified since then. The Department of Energy found nothing of concern, but the CIA blanked lines in about 20 papers and pulled 8 documents out of collection. As of 2018, some files in the collection are available only to those regarded by the library as "serious researchers", who must first sign a release not to divulge some of the information contained in the files.

The Henry Jackson Society

The society was founded on 11 March 2005 by academics and students at Cambridge, including Brendan Simms, Alan Mendoza, Gideon Mailer, James Rogers and Matthew Jamison. It organises meetings with speakers in the House of Commons. The society claims that it advocates an interventionist) foreign-policy that promotes human rights and reduces suffering, by both non-military and military methods, when appropriate.
In 2006, the society worked to raise the profile of the Ahwazi Arabs of Iran, who it claims are currently being oppressed by the Iranian government.
After originating within the University of Cambridge, the organisation is now based in London. In April 2011 the entire staff of another London think-tank, the Centre for Social Cohesion (which has since been dissolved), joined the Henry Jackson Society.
The organisation is a registered charity in England and Wales and earns financial backing from private donations and grant-making organisations which support its work. The income of the society increased significantly from 2009 to 2014, from £98,000 to £1.6 million per year.
In 2017 Hannah Stuart, one of the society's Research Fellows, released Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences and Attacks in the UK (1998–2015), which profiled every individual convicted under terrorism legislation in the UK between those dates with an Islamist connection.

Structure and projects

The Society has produced a breadth of research reports and papers. These have mostly focused on Islamist extremist activity in the UK, crackdowns on human rights and democracy elsewhere, and various facets of foreign policy and defence.Its current workstreams include:
In September 2018, the Society announced the creation of a new Centre for Social and Political Risk. This Centre will "identify, diagnose and propose solutions to threats to governance in liberal Western democracies", focusing on social cohesion and integration; freedom of speech and political correctness; demographic change; and other issues.

Criticism

The think tank has been described by the media as having right-wing and neoconservative leanings, though it positions itself as non-partisan.In 2014, Nafeez Ahmed, an executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, said that the Henry Jackson Society courts corporate, political power to advance a distinctly illiberal oil and gas agenda in the Middle East.
In 2009 the society became the secretariat of two all-party parliamentary groups (APPGs), for Transatlantic and International Security, chaired by Gisela Stuart, and for Homeland Security, chaired by Bernard Jenkin. A transparency requirement upon non-profit organisations acting as secretariat at that time was that they must reveal, on request, any corporate donors who gave £5,000 or more to the organisation over the past year or cease acting as a secretariat organisation. In 2014, following a query, the society refused to disclose this information and resigned its position as secretariat of the APPGs concerned in order to comply with the Rules. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Kathryn Hudson, upheld a complaint against these APPGs on the grounds data had not been provided, but noted the society had already resigned its position and that the consequence of this non-provision therefore "appears to have taken effect" as the Rules intended. The case was therefore closed with no further action taken and the APPGs themselves dissolved with the dissolution of Parliament in March 2015. The APPG Rules were subsequently changed in March 2015 so that only those non-profit organisations providing services to APPGs of more than £12,500 in value needed to declare their corporate donors.
In July 2014 the Henry Jackson Society was sued by Lady de Rothschild over funds of a "caring capitalism" summit. Lady de Rothschild claims that she has financed the summit and that HJS and its executive director Alan Mendoza are holding £137,000 of “surplus funds” from the conference that should be returned to the couple’s investment company EL Rothschild.
Think tank discussions on the Middle East and Islam have led some media organisations to criticise a perceived anti-Muslim agenda. Marko Attila Hoare, a former senior member, cited related reasons for leaving the think tank and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy was urged, in 2015, to sever his links with the society.
According to the report published in 2015, "a right-wing politics is apparent not only in the ideas that the Henry Jackson Society promotes, but also emerges distinctly on examination of its funders."
In 2017, the Henry Jackson Society was accused of running an anti-China propaganda campaign after the Japanese embassy gave them a monthly fee of 10,000 pounds.The campaign was said to be aimed at planting Japan's concerns about China in British newspapers.
Co-founder Matthew Jamison wrote in 2017 that he was ashamed of his involvement, having never imagined the Henry Jackson Society "would become a far-right, deeply anti-Muslim racist [...] propaganda outfit to smear other cultures, religions and ethnic groups." "The HJS for many years has relentlessly demonised Muslims and Islam."
In January 2019, Nikita Malik of the Henry Jackson Society provided The Daily Telegraph with information they claimed showed a Muslim scout leader was linked to Islamic extremists and Holocaust deniers.In January 2020 The Daily Telegraph issued a retraction and formal apology saying that:
"the articles said that Ahammed Hussain had links to extremist Muslim Groups that promoted terrorism and anti-Semitism, and could have suggested that he supported those views and encouraged their dissemination. We now accept that this was wrong and that Mr Hussain has never supported or promoted terrorism, or been anti-Semitic.We acted in good faith on information received but we now accept that the article is defamatory of Mr Hussain and false, and apologise for the distress caused to him in publishing it. We have agreed to pay him damages and costs."
The initial signatories of the statement of principles included:
International patrons included Richard Perle, William Kristol, former CIA Director R. James Woolsey Jr., and former Lithuanian leader Vytautas Landsbergis.

Comments

This has been a rabbit hole and only half the story regarding Lady Forester. Then only link between Lady Forester and Jeffrey Epstein is In 1995, financier Lynn Forester discussed "Jeffrey Epstein and currency stabilization" with Clinton. Epstein, according to his own accounts, was heavily involved in the foreign exchange market and traded large amounts of currency in the unregulated forex market. I will post another story Lady Forester and the coalition for Inclusive Capitalism.

References

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Jackson_Society
https://henryjacksonsociety.org/who-was-henry-jackson/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_M._Jackson
submitted by DeusEx1991 to Epstein [link] [comments]

Why I believe Modi is the real peacemaker in the India- Pakistan faceoff!

Context :
Unless you've been living under a rock, you'd know that India had conducted an airstrike in Pakistani territory in response to Pulwama suicide bombing which killed more than 40 CRPF men in Kashmir, India. The terror outfit Jaish-e-mohammad took responsibility of the attack. Feb 26 airstrikes by India were conducted on a major installation of this terror outfit.

As the situation was expected to go, Pakistan vowed retaliation. On Feb 27, 24 F-16s and JF-17s progressed towards Indian side. In response to this infiltration attempt, India scrambled 8 jets ( MIG-21 Bison, Mirage 2000 and Sukhoi 30MKI ). In this Dog fight, one of the F-16 of Pakistan was shot down by a MIG 21 BISON. However, the MIG also crashed and it's pilot, W.C Abhinandan landed on the Pakistani side.

Pakistan PM had made 2 attempts to "persuade " (in their own terms) India to de-escalate. Coupled with the release of W.C, Pakistan PM is being promoted as a candidate for Nobel peace prize by their media and citizen alike. BUT IS THIS THE ONLY PERSPECTIVE ?

Analysis
If one changes the shades and sees through Modi's eye, the situation looks all rehearsed by the Indian side with nothing (much) really going off tracks. So yes, Prime Minister Modi decided to take action on terror outfit. The objective of the mission? To eliminate the chief commanders and key people of JEM who provided strategic and logistic support to this terror outfit. The airstrikes made sure that this was achieved. In a press briefing, the Indian Foreign secretary confirmed a "non- military, preemptive action ".
Words matter a lot in international diplomacy and hence, the need to put them out there in bold. Since this was not a military action, the action cannot be treated as an act of war and qualifies, at best, as an aggressive violation of airspace. But unless declared as a "state of war"(as required by Hague convention) by any one side, the situation at best can be defined as an " armed conflict ", thus triggering the Article 2 of Geneva convention (which only means that the conditions of Geneva conventions relating to treatment of soldiers, POWs, nurses etc now apply under Article 12).
Okay, so Pakistan did react but this time hitting **"military installations" ,**as confirmed during the joint press brief of all the three forces of India. This does translates down to an act of war as it gives a logical excuse to any country to declare an official state of war. However, India did not choose to do so.
Also, in his request to de-escalate, Pakistan, a state with $6Bn as forex, talked about how nuclear war would be disastrous for the region. But wait a second, who even mentioned war? Pakistan did! Did Government of India or any of the representatives of the armed forces even mentioned the word 'WAR' when they were being blackmailed by the terms such as "nuclear" from the other side? I don't count the war room experts of ABP news as official spokespersons for India, sorry.
While watching France24 debate on this issue, I heard a unique point being mentioned by a panelist who said that Modi's continued engagements with scheduled functions showed a complete lack of leadership. I found it interesting because his continued engagements at different events showed how disinterested the Government of India was in a war that was almost a reality to the TRP freaks and keyboard warriors. It also showed how India was calling the bluff of Pakistan out in the open.
Was Indian reaction to the inbound Pakistani jets wrong? Isn't it the duty of IAF and other armed forces to react as bravely as they did? Isn't it logical that India offered no negotiations on the release of W.C Abhinandan, making it clear that the Pakistan must release it ? Isn't it logical that India took the matter to UNSC the day airstrikes were conducted , thanks to the French? Would a country, interested in war or escalation of conflicts approach an international body on security ? Isn't it logical that few hours into the announcement of visit of Saudi FM to Islamabad and a interesting remark the US president, PM Imran khan offers a peace gesture?
Conclusion
Truth is, the whole narrative of war was created by Pakistan and fueled by the TRP hungry news channels. India and it's leadership are the real peacemakers here because we defeated the narrative of war, pressurized Pakistan into making a BBC gaffe which made them admit, on record, that they know where JEM chief is , and also called the bluff that Pakistan takes with itself to the table.


EDIT : Forex of Pakistan changed from $2BN to $6 BN as reported in January 2019.
EDIT 2: Formatting and grammatical edits to make it simpler to read.
submitted by theonlysithleft to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]

[CRISIS] The SCS Financial Crash

New York Times: East Asian Economy in Crisis

The Diplomat:The Taiwanese Fortress Mentality Since the beginning of the PRC blockade on Taiwan, multiple commentators have remarked on the incredible resilience of the Taiwanese people. The PRC naval contingent has been described as relatively small, though any Taiwanese effort to break the blockade certainly would have resulted in disastrous consequences, and so the island has resolved to pursue a strategy of waiting, allowing foreign contempt for the PRC to build, and for its own economy to adapt to the changing commercial conditions, potentially gearing itself up for a major regional war. Rationing has been implemented in Taiwan, and smuggling is incredibly frequent to resupply when necessary. Many Chinese naval officers have been reported as taking bribes from Taiwanese shipping corporations, and the deployed forces aren't able to flawlessly monitor all of Taiwan's waters. The no-fly zone over the island has prevented airborne resupply, but blockade running remains relatively common and relatively successful. Throughout the past year and a half, the Taiwanese people have more or less accepted this status. Many feel betrayed by the international community, and a vast majority are set on not acquiescing to the PRC's demands.
 
The Guardian:Chinese Agents Captured in Taiwan The ongoing blockade by the PRC on Taiwan has seen many question the resolve of the island, as governmental and economic collapse persistently seemed right around the corner. Evidently, the PRC believed the same, as earlier today, 11 PRC agents were captured by Taiwanese authorities with a host of equipment. Taiwan released a statement explaining that these agents were here to undermine the government and foster pro-unification sentiments, as well as to begin convincing the island to essentially surrender to PRC demands. In response, financial markets have slowly begun shifting, though it's unclear if...
 
Reuters:China in Crisis After a Chinese infiltration of Taiwan resulted in the capture of PRC agents, the country's population responded preemptively to what it assumed would be a foreign response consisting of...
 
The Economist:FDI in China Grinds to a Halt Following mass withdrawals by Chinese citizens, FDI slowly began to ebb, collapsing projections for...
 
Financial Times:Debt, Bubbles, and Bankruptcy While Chinese measures in the late 2010s and early 2020s alleviated many of the economic issues plaguing the country, the recent action taken against Taiwan has nevertheless plunged the country into a deep financial recession. As GDP falls, the ratio to debt will skyrocket, leading to unsustainable...
Suffice to say, the Chinese economy is a great deal of trouble. Trade between the Republic and the People's Republic is not insubstantial, but up until this point, Taiwan has been bearing the brunt of the economic consequences. Following the revelation that Chinese agents were being sent to Taiwan, in combination with the ongoing act of war, Chinese citizens began to lose faith in their government and started to concern themselves with a foreign reaction consisting potentially of economic repercussions.
Large-scale withdrawals from Chinese banks, in tandem with the slow cease of foreign direct investment, heralded the beginning of a major financial crisis, which was further signaled by a massive fall in the Shanghai Stock Exchange the day after Taiwan released its statement regarding Chinese intelligence operations.
Feeding into itself, this has resulted in the collapse of borrowing and the explosion of interest rates, with hundreds of Chinese businesses collapsing. As the value of various industries plummets, the Chinese housing and industry bubbles, deflated by Chinese economic policy, are expected to finally burst, though much reduced in impact. Stocks and financial transaction within the country will fall further and GDP will collapse. Debt will hit unsustainable levels relative to the country's new GDP, and default will suddenly become a major concern, further endangering the country's prospects as a major site of investment. The effects of this economic disaster are far-ranging, including a fall in oil prices, a potential tumble in the USD as FOREX reserves are potentially sold off by the Chinese government, perhaps the beginning of privatization in the PRC, and economic shocks to African nations relying on Chinese loans among other things.
By 2027, the Chinese GDP will have collapsed from over $19 trillion to $10,189.56 billion. The PRC will remain the world's largest economy, but much reduced, opening up an economic power vacuum not only in Asia, but globally.
Countries GDP Forecast for 2027
15%< trade with China High Negative (-2% to -3.5%)
10%< to 15% trade with China Low Negative (-0.5% to -1.5%)
5%< to 10% trade with China Low (0% to 1%)
5%≥ trade with China Lower than your average
These are basic guidelines. Do what makes sense.
submitted by _Irk to worldpowers [link] [comments]

[Table] IamA MrRavenblade, A Real Life SuperHero (RLSH) who has been doing this for over 12 years (6 in seattle).

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2012-05-02
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Link to my post
Questions Answers
What is your proudest achievement, Mr. Ravenblade? Looking back, I still remember that first woman I helped. I think of her often, and I cant help but wonder what her life is like now. Does she have kids? A family? A Husband? How would her life have been different if I had not helped her? I wonder this for a lot of people I have helped over the years, but to be honest, I can not help but be proudest of the first time I - scared and worried - told myself "Hey this is not right, I cant just sit back and do nothing". The first time is always the hardest. I had training in different things and was at the time studding martial arts but no real practical street experience; But still I had to try and I thin that theproudest achievement was just being willing to put myself out there and help make the world a better place.
Do you have a signature costume or logo? Its not about me. Yes I have a logo, etc.
Yeah, but can't you go into detail about a specific altercation...? Unlike others in Seattle, I don't brag about my past.
A hero is humble.
But seriously, can you go into details about anything you've done? I have filed charges against known criminals, I have helped police apprehend a fugitive, I have protected people from attempted rape, I have assisted in investigations, I have patrolled areas or communities known to be high crime, I have done charity work such as walk for babies, events for TreeHouse for Kids, donated money I raised to missions, fed the homeless, gone to McDonalds and bough 50 cheeseburgers at at time so i could hand them out to the homeless, the list goes on..
So you're saying that in Seattle, there are a bunch of superheros running around? Also if you make an AMA about being a superhero and don't "brag" about your past... You're going to have a bad time. I just don't want to be a dick.
Then why post an AMA...? I was asked to.
For the record you got down voted by everyone (not me, I don't down vote) because you did not answer a question instead you talked all about yourself and then said you don't brag; which you did. Interesting AMA, but I wish you would answer questions. I answered every question asked. If I missed one, I am not aware of it..
Awesome, sounds like some legitimate work there, well done sir. Anybody could do this. I'm not special. I just choose to not let fear stop me.
It's reddit, dude. We want you to be a dick. I think you have the wrong idea about reddit my friend, the people here are kinder than that and care a lot more about the people around them than you think.
That is why things like Link to www.reddit.com , among others, exits.
Have you ever been bashed or hurt while on the job? Yes.
I had to laugh because for a second, I thought you meant "I just choose to not let fear stop me... from buying cheeseburgers at McDonald's. AWAY!" The next time you have the cash, order 50$ of 1 dollar cheeseburgers from McDonalds. the look on the face of the person taking your order when you do it inside is great, and the sound of them going "wait, what?" on the drive though is also very funny.
Reddit's been taken over by a lot of supervillains lately, Mr. Ravenblade. :( Most of them are bots tho, so they don't exist out in the real world.
Are you concerned that criminals will see that you're tied up answering these questions and use this opportunity to steal the big diamond out of the museum? No.
That was a boring answer :( Ok so lets spice it up a bit.
I'm not worried. The diamond in the museum is a fake, the real one has already moved on to the next location, protected by ninjas that look like kittens.. that all have flame throwers.
That raises a lot of disturbing questions about the value of diamonds. Sure, stealing is wrong but is being burned to death by kitten-shaped ninjas an appropriate punishment for taking one? You have become the tyranny you despise, sir. But, Kitties! Look at the Kitties!
Do you feel that you do a better job than the police? What profound impacts have you made since you began doing this? My father was a Cop and he had a profound effect on my life.
I know from personal experience that the cops do what they can, with the limited funding and resources available to them. I have nothing but respect for the good cops out there - the bad apples are a cancer that make the rest look bad - as it takes a lot of guts to get up at 4am, strap a ballistic vest on, put on your gun, and kiss your loved ones before leaving, never knowing if you will see them again.
I do what I can, like them. I do not do "better" or "worse". I'm just doing it from a different perspective. And like them, I respect the rule of law.
Its hard to say or list all of the good I have done I have been doing this for over 12 years so there has been a lot of people I have helped, homeless I have fed or clothed, foster kids that needed warm coats, babies screened for cancer, etc. I like to think that the good ripples out.
May I ask you why you didn't choose to became a police officer? I saw my father constantly struggle to provide for others on a very low paying salary, despite the good he did every day. Even he wanted to quit and be a judge, because the pay was better.
I wanted to be, but I knew I could do more good going in another direction.
Uh, judges are lawyers, not former police officers. Good catch, I wondered if people would get it.
Unless your dad was also a lawyer being a judge would not be an option. He studied very hard, had to move around to do it, etc. But he wanted to take care of people so he did what he needed to.
How can i get started doing this? What are some tips you could give me? So i just read your FAQ, whats the difference between you and a neighborhood watch? What prompted you to take up the mask? You can get started by calling up your local police and setting up a ride along. There are also often citizens academy style classes you can take. This will give you the best intro to law enforcement, as well as put you in the best terms with police.
Neighborhood watch is more passive.
Do you ever hope there will be a time their be a mask on every corner, and the we will live in a world where heroes arent wanted they are needed. because we'll have some crazy supervillian? I hope the day we are needed that much never comes.
So if i want to be a real superhero and do all the cool ass kicking i should join that other guys group? No, he just uses camera tricks and actors in the form of his extended family an friends to make you think that.
Dude, you are a vigilante, might as well admit it. Define "vigilante". Clearly you and I have a different definition of it. I don't go all Judge Dredd on people (nobody should) and that is what I see a vigilante.
Fuck this shit imma start my own group and just be kick ass no videos no names just ass kicking. Thats called a gang... I doubt that would be productive.
Your definition of vigilante is irrelevant. Many criminals don't consider themselves as criminals either. Their opinion on the matter is also not relevant. I don't punish people, as required by the definition.. as such, I am not a vigilante. The cops, the law, etc, punishes them.
The textbook definition of vigilante is "vigilante is a private individual (or (pl.) group of individuals) who presumes to carry out extralegal punishment in defiance of existing law." "vigilante is a private individual (or (pl.) group of individuals) who presumes to carry out extralegal punishment in defiance of existing law."
Were you in that documentary on real life superheroes? The name evades me but I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. If you weren't why not? The documentary was very political in the RLSH community, and I was not in it because I had some philosophical differences with some of the people who are in it. Namely, I dint like the commercialization of the RLSH altruistic spirit that it represented.
question, how often do you get laid? Until recently I was in a very long term relationship; While in that relationship I was 100% monogamous, then it ended because she was not somebody I could trust. The relationship was good however; It also shielded me from what we in the RLSH community call call "Cape Chasers", women who get involved in the RLSH community simply to find "a good guy" or just to get banged by a guy in a cape. I'm not kidding, these women exist and its a real problem as they often try to start drama or get guys in the community fighting over them.
So every occupation involving capes aparently has groupies. I guess groupies is a good word for it, but doesn't really fit as more often than not the women enjoy the attention enough to start doing the RLSH thing and sometimes they stay even after the relationship that got them into it ends.
What kind of personal safety equipment do you wear - bullet proof vest or other body armor perhaps? Bullet Proof Armor, bought off the shelf as well as some custom made stuff.
In Seattle a lot of people who are ignorant or simply new to the scene like to brag about their Kevlar stuff; But to me any time I see people brag about that sort of thing I laugh and cry a little, because it only shows they are ignorant about Kevlar in general and have not made the effort to educate themselves, since Kevlar loses its protection when it gets wet.. and we have a lot of rain in the area.
Have you ever met Cincinnati's "Shadow Hare"? Have you ever gotten hurt? Does anyone ever try to be a "Super Villain"? Shadow Hare is a political topic in RLSH circles; I'm not sure of the exact details and I was not there so I cant really speak on it with authoritativeness.
Political topic? Could you explain what you know/what you mean when you say "Political Topic" (saw it mentioned below) out of curiosity? I understand you weren't there, just wondering on the gist of it. It was a polarizing event in RLSH history. Anytime you have "sides" the community suffers, I would rather focus on the things I know about and can speak authoritatively about.
What was polarizing about it? what is it? I'm not sure of the details, as I tried to stay as far away from it as possible at the time. I understood that he injured himself or something, and it created drama i wanted no part of.
How do you make a living? I don't think you would accept money for your hero services. (I am guessing you run your own business? If so, may I ask what it is?) No true RLSH would accept money for doing it. I will not say what it is - I said ask em anything, not I will tell you anything - as it would endanger other people.
Also, have you been shot or stabbed? or was there an attempt? Or have you always been able to diffuse the situation before it went that far. Yes. Stabbed and Shot. And its not a cool thing; its a failure on my part to negotiate or otherwise handle the situation without the need for violence.
Fair enough, I was just curious as it probably requires a lot of time to go out and be a RLSH, a normal 9-5 job would not make that easy. I do a lot of night stuff. One thing about being the boss, is nobody cares if you get in late in the mornings.
What is your relationship with law enforcement? Do they know/trust you, or do they resent the vigilante act? I consider my relationship with law enforcement to be one based on respect. Every time I interact with them, I give them the respect they deserve and they treat me with more than the amount of respect I feel entitled to. I'm not a vigilante, so that's not a problem.
Do you videotape your actions to act as evidence? Maybe a GoPro camera? In WA state we have laws about recording that have to be followed. I have a press pass among other things, so that helps, but in the end the law needs to be respected.
Would you say that you're the weirdo Seattle needs, or more the weirdo Seattle deserves? I think I'm the guy Seattle needed; now the community has grown since I was the only RLSH in the area. I see myself as jump starting the movement locally since I was at one time the only one, but in the end my goal is to mentor and provide my experiences, all the while doing what I do best.
Do you know Phoenix Jones? He and I don't get along; He actually threatened to kill innocent people when I spoke out against his violent actions when he first started. I don't consider him to be a RLSH, and that was why he had to start his own little RCSH thing, because nobody wanted him in the community.
Sadly, yes.
So you said you shouldn't pepper spray people, then he said he would murder innocents? In my opinion he has an issue with control.
It follows this that He likes to make people submit to him, and gets scared when it looks like he doesn't control the situation. I personally believe it stems from his childhood and the sense of abandonment he got from some of the things that happened to him - and for this , I truly pity him - but the end result is that when he doesn't have control over people (like he doesn't have control over me, for example when I am speaking out against him) he gets angry and makes threats in an attempt to control them that way, thought the people they love or otherwise by using them or their safety as a hostage of sorts.
This sort of action to me is something only an evil person would do.. and that's why I don't trust him or think of him as a hero at all.
On Tuesday, the 1st of May 2012, Phoenix Jones and crew allegedly pepper sprayed members of the Occupy movements's May Day demonstrators in downtown Seattle.[23]. In an interview on the Bob Rivers Show on 2nd May, Phoenix Jones asserted that, while undercover with the protesters, several of them revealed to him a plot to bomb the city courthouse. Damn that's nuts. Do you have any stories like that?! After I lost a female friend in 9/11, I looked into military service. Does that count?
But he does have a pretty cool suit, I bet it is expensive. Its rubber and it was pretty cheap from what understand. The only thing custom about it that I know of is the stuff he cut from it around the face.
Dragonskin is pretty expensive, at least 5 grand. What he has is not Dragonskin, last I checked. I'm sure he wants to tell people it is, but my understanding is he cant legally get it due to his criminal records, so if it is, that's just another thing for the police to bust him for.
Criminal records? In WA anybody with a record is not allowed to own ballistics gear. Doing so will only get you in more trouble, last I checked the law.
Do people know your irl identity? I'm very open with my RL identity to the police and several people have tried to unmask me to them, resulting in a lot of laughter.
Have any criminals you tried apprehending laugh when they saw you (considering the out of placeness of superheros...)? If so what did you do? I think it should be a prerequisite that people have a good relationship with the police, etc to do this work. If the police don't like you, you are going to have a hard time.
Do you have to use a particular set of skills (i.e martial arts) to take down criminals? Have you had to use it on any thugs? Did you come out victorious? I only use my martial arts skills in self defense; A real hero ends a fight, he doesn't start it.
Do you have any super powers? Or are you like batman. Or sherlock holmes? I got into business because I saw that Ironman and Batman were the ones funding all the other heroes..
I've read every reply in this thread. Can you please explain how humbleness and bragging about media exposure and having a facebook fan page go hand in hand? I'd also love to hear why you think you get more respect and inspire more people by wearing a ridiculous costume? I'm put in a difficult position; I want to promote humbleness, by using marketing skills to promote good values as if they are a product, with the goal that if people "buy" into the idea that people should be excellent to other it will promote positive change in the world. Yet these very things require me to put myself out there.
You actually might inspire people if you dropped the costume act. If you wore all black and a ski mask, you'd look badass versus people thinking you are late for filming a power rangers episode. Its a struggle either way, and I welcome any feedback or ideas you have.
I get that but just to let you know it doesn't come off that way. The whole "persona" just screams look at me look at me. Because if I do it with just my face exposed to the world, people will say "oh, he is just doing it for the social credibility", or worse, they could think I am a great guy and somehow above them socially.. and that would make it more difficult for others to be inspired. That is exactly what I DO NOT WANT. The less personal attention/social reward I get for my heroic deeds, the people I help, etc, the better.
You obviously are doing good in what you do but the reaction is indifference or laughter because of this persona you have. Can you please explain why you think you are taken more seriously by wearing a costume, having a ridiculous superhero name versus just wearing normal clothes and doing the same thing? Apple uses shadows in its ads for a reason: to inspire people into thinking "that could be me"/. The mask is the same thing, basically.
What kind of gadgets do you use? I go into this a little on the TV spots I have done, but a lot of the tools I use are now standard fare as everybody seems to have copied me. Bear Mace, Extendable Stun Batons, Stun Devices of multiple kinds, gear for dealing with the cold, handout supplies, ballistic vests, etc.
How do the police permit you to carry this stuff and use it? Isn't it illegal? Not illegal at all.
As I said in a video I did, the important thing in Seattle limits is to make sure you have no concealed weapons over 6 feet in length (yes, its an actual law) and stay away from projectile weapons. I also stay away from bladed weapons just to be safe; I don't need them to protect myself and I would hate for somebody else to get hurt by mistake.
Do you find it hard to move in costume and all the stuff you hold? I imagine it would be pretty hard. Uniform is designed to not create issue.
What do you think about the "war on drugs?" I think more data is needed on drugs, and being as I have no experience with any sort of drug that my doctor did not prescribe me, I'm not an authority on it either way. I do know however that they are illegal, so society clearly expects me to stay away from them.
Also, the obvious question: If you could have any super power, what would it be? Super Power? Given my science education, I wouldn't mind being able to manipulate the Fundamental Interaction of matter at will. Magneto could only control one of them, after all.
People who use drugs, who aren't junkies or 16 yearolds are often pretty private about their habit, its not something they're going to bring up in general conversation. Exactly.
People often don't bring up things they are ashamed of.
I'm pretty sure Charlie Sheen makes more than 100k a year and he's a coc addict. Maybe I should edit that to say "outside of media"
Are you familiar with Superman Blue? As I understand it from the toy box, he had power over the entire electromagnetic spectrum, which I think means that he could even fuck up shit that we don't even see. There are multiple versions of the Blue Superman; Read this Link to en.wikipedia.org
I wouldn't say all are ashamed, its like someone who enjoys a brand of beer, it doesn't become an adopted aspect of their lifestyle like stoners seem to portray, its just something they do and enjoy. My only experience with people who are open about it has been negative.
It's not statistical if it's an anecdote. According to this study, the only people that abuse drugs MORE than those making > $65,000 are those making below poverty. Drugs are illegal, its not up to me, and the fact is it doesn't matter what I think of them because they are still illegal no-matter what I think. I don't use them, I'm not an authority on them, and I honestly don't care for them.
Do you have like a social disorder? Some of your responses are a little tense bud, loosen up. It's the Internet. I'm at work. I may be the boss but I still have to work, bro.
So you're saying that Ebony is automatically subservient to ivory? No.
Do you have a job? Yes.
I own a company.
You consider yourself a superhero, so yeah, delusions of grandeur, among other things, is self-evident. Ok for your benefit, I'm going to drop the persona for a single post and lay some truth down on you. People don't care about the world. That is why the world is so fucked up. Nobody cares about their fellow man, communities can not depend on the people to take care of themselves, men in general have become pussies who no longer protect their part of the world, and in general, most people are greedy and selfish. To that end, most people just want to be entertained; So the result of this is the people who want to do good, must do so while also being entertainers. The end result of this is that most of the RLSH you see, while going out into the world and doing the good they can, have to go the persona/superhero thing.
People with mental disorders rarely see themselves that way.
Have you considered any post secondary education? I think "Dr. RavenBlade" would strike fear into the hearts of criminals! )
Thoughts? Yes I am a RLSH - have been for over a 10 years - but I don't really see the so called "Villains" like Rex as "bad" myself; I think the "community" of RLSH really needs them. If anything, we need more of them. They serve to deflate the egos of people who take themselves far too seriously, the sort of subgroup in the RLSH community that all too often thinks too much of themselves when they should be humble role models.
Its also clear this guy has help from somebody who knows a little something about media, and has thrown in some humor. This should do well given that Peter T sold out teh RLSH community when he decided to support PJ just to help his career. So yes, I support Rex, just as I supported Tiny Terror, Agent Null, and all the other so called "RLSV" even though technically as a RLSH I guess I'm supposed to hate them or something, because I know that ultimately, good things will come out of it.
I am looking forward to how this unfolds.
I did not expect the response that you gave but i am glad that you gave it. Thank you for being a person of a sound and rational mind. You are welcome. I only hope as the community grows more people will have a use for rational logic.
You may or may not be corrupt, but you're setting a precedent -- whether you admit it or not, your existence is inspiration for others, regardless of what you want. You're certainly not advocating for a vigilante-focused crime response system, are you? You certainly don't think the police are unnecessary, and that you and your team should handle crime, do you? Respectfully, You are wrong about me being a Vigilante or the idea of me trying to inspire others to be one. The law is explicit in that it allows what I do, in the way that I do it. If you do not like it the only think you can do is vote to get rid of peoples right to defend themselves... but i don't think you will be very successful. But for every Jones there are dozens of others who honestly want to do good, use their logic and reason and not further their failed careers, and in the end the world is better place for it.
Do you fit any of the common themes for many superheros? (newspapers, millionare, dead parents, etc.) Yup.
Broken Home, Dead Relatives, Misc Training, interested in business, among others.
Covert government training? What does this mean? It just seems so vauge... I am also hoping you don't say "I can't talk about that" because then you wouldn't even mention it. It says "Misc Training"... ;)
It also says "7 hours ago*" but I'll leave that one alone. Don't suppose you'll expound on 'misc training'? Either way thank you for letting me (and I am sure others) know about a fascinating subculture I was otherwise unaware of. One last question, what's the story or reason behind the name? It was given to me by a loved one before she died in a car wreck due to a drunk driver.
Do you have a nemesis? Evil.
Not "RLSV" Evil. These people are much needed critics and I think help the RLSH community in the long run. No, I consider people who rape, kill, or otherwise hurt kids to be my biggest enemy. I hate pedophiles.
Would you win in a fight against 'Kick Ass'? Why would we fight?
Hypothetical situation obviously, as a comparison of abilities. So hypothetically, say he and I spared. As friends.
I'm much bigger than he is. I have more muscle, and tactical training he lacks. So its safe to say he and I are not even in the same weight class.
To be honest I would be worried about hurting him, so I would probably let him test himself and be on the defensive until I knew he could handle things or he got a good shot in. I would probably still win, but whats the point of letting a friend lose without teaching him something?
All valid points. Tactical training you say? )
Have you seen the HBO documentary "superheroes"? thoughts? do you know any of the superheroes in it? do you appreciate their work? This is a duplicate of the same question above :)
Do you have another job? How would I start doing this??? I own a company.
You start by doing what I said in FAQ, and by checking with your local police force for a ride along.
I just got back from Seattle. Can you do something about all the hipsters and panhandlers? Are you asking me to beat up on homeless people?
Maybe you could hire the homeless people to beat up the hipsters? People that are homeless typically don't have that kind of work ethic, not when so many options exist for them to no longer be homeless.
Speaking from experience working with the homeless adults are often homeless because they want to be, or because they have mental disabilities that keep them from being able to take advantage of the options available. Children are often homeless due to no fault of their own, or because they ran away from a worse situation, and now they don't trust anybody.
The only time I see you guys (or at least phoenix jones) is posing with girls stumbling out of the clubs. How do you feel that's working on your image to be taken legitimately? I think that sort of thing is actively doing damage to the reputation of the community, especially when he has stated publicly that his girlfriend - not wife, so I can only assume based on his public statements that he doesn't have the balls to marry her despite saying publicly he has a kid with her - expects him to be faithful like the hero he claims to be.
I don't mind if he's being faithful or not, I just think that he and others look less legit when they're just doing photo ops for people and the news. Both issues apply.
How can he call himself a hero if he is acting in a way that even LOOKS unfaithful to his significant other?
Did you not get arrested recently? I thought I saw a video online where you were the one starting shit. Quick edit: Maybe not, but is this a bro of yours? No I am not a "bro" with that guy. Unlike him, I do not have a criminal record. I don't consider him to even be a RLSH.
Can you do multivariate calculus? Thats a large branch of study, but I have found it most useful in my ForEx and stock market efforts.
Last updated: 2012-05-07 02:14 UTC
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