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Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
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You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
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The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Sometimes, the Predator turns into the Prey, and the Prey, on the contrary, becomes the Predator. During the time of the US-China trade wars, the US looked as an aggressor attacking a victim, which was China. China couldn't adequately retaliate. US import tariffs pressed down China’s exports while selling off China’s Treasury stocks would hardly have been that effective. China was afraid of capital outflows, so it had to make concessions. Now, the victim has recovered and is looking for prey among weaker countries.
Financial Times, referring to the sources familiar with the matter, reports that Chinese power stations and steel mills have been verbally told to immediately stop using Australian coal. Coal is one of the primary components of Australia’s exports. China seems to be a vindictive country. It hasn’t forgiven Australia for the allegations to the COVID-19 laboratory origins, expressed a few months ago. The prey turned out into a predator. Will China continue retaliatory measures against Australia?
This time, Canberra has nothing to respond with. The share of Australia’s exports to China is about 40%, China’s exports to Australia are less than 2%. The trade war hasn’t yet started, but there is already the winner. The problems with the Australian coal exports and the yuan’s drop started an AUDUSD correction down. The AUD bulls used to seem invincible before. Australia’s economy was supported by several factors. The iron ore prices rose. China’s economy, being one of the key trade partners of Australia, was recovering rapidly.The AUDUSD rose by 31% from the low hit in March.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and iron ore prices


Source: Bloomberg
The AUD rise resulted from the rapidly growing US stock indexes and the global economic recovery in the third quarter. However, the AUDUSD rally will continue so fast in the next six-nine months. China’s PMI slows down, the US epidemiological situation is still difficult, the euro area faces the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, China attacks Australia, so it is natural that Aussie buyers are discouraged. The median gauge of Bloomberg’s experts for the AUD is $0.72, which corresponds to the current levels.
Nonetheless, there are always two currencies in a currency pair. According to Goldman Sachs, a ‘blue wave’ in the USA (Democrats take control of both the White House and the Congress after the election on November 3) and positive news about the coronavirus vaccines should send the USD down to the lows recorded in 2018. UBS and Invesco share a similar opinion. They recommend their clients to sell the dollar as Joe Biden’s rating grows. Hedge funds seem to follows such ideas.

Dynamics of USD and US dollar speculative positions


Source: Bloomberg
Monthly AUDUSD trading plan
I believe Beijing and Canberra will solve political problems, the yuan will resume its rally, and the Democrats will win in the elections. In this scenario, it is still relevant to buy the AUDUSD on the corrections down. The medium-term targets are at 0.745 and 0.762.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-is-a-new-victim-of-china-forecast-as-of-13102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency Investment Script

Cryptocurrency Investment Script
It has been more than a year, people started investing in cryptocurrencies as a Secondary earning method. Some people's main earning base is investing. There will be a common wording - "Never Invest in Something You Don’t Understand". So it's mandatory to have basic ideas about cryptocurrency, Fiats, and Investment before jumping into the digital world. Actually, it's a vast field, you can't complete it. But you can learn enough to find your feet.
What is Cryptocurrency?
We can say simply as digital currencies that are of codes. A cryptocurrency is not owned or backed by any government or country. A cryptocurrency is a new form of digital asset based on a network that is distributed across a large number of computers. Mainly they are decentralized networks maintained using blockchain technology. I.e Distributed ledger. You can call it Money that was created by the people for them and they are controlling it. Many Governments and legal authorities are against cryptocurrency as they have many advantages over regular currencies.

https://preview.redd.it/o8ss0acmezy51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=37acdfa2b625bf3a5926e3a103867e8dd1c3247b
What are Fiat Currencies?
Currencies that are owned and controlled by any government are called FIAT currencies. Some of the well known Fiat currencies are USD(United States Dollar), GBP(Great Britain Pound or Sterling Pound), AUD(Australian Dollar), CNY(Chinese Yen), JPY(Japanese Yen), INR(Indian Rupee), etc.,
FIATs always lacking in the characteristics of sound money. Cryptocurrencies fill almost all gaps. As there are many advantages, the main thing is it's not controlling by any third party sources. Every transaction is made ledger and made available to all users.
Investment based on Cryptocurrency
One can invest Fiat currency as well as cryptocurrency, there will be a fixed profit for them and variable profit for them as per the investment platform they choose. As an investor, you have to select the best platform for your investment. You have to be aware of a scam as well as a real platform that gives you promised profit. Always we have to keep in mind that successful investing is about managing the risk, you have to be ready to face the risk too. There many easy go investment platforms that are helping to attain certain profit over the market. Even you don't have the knowledge about trading, exchange; investing in a proper platform will give you profit. There are multiple ways where you can invest in cryptocurrency and earn more. Some of the well known facts are HYIP investment platforms, peer to peer Exchange platforms, Forex trading using signals also now some newly trended cryptocurrency investment script like PAMM managers, Copy Trading and Auto Trading. There is a wide range of cryptocurrency based opportunity available, choosing the right platform with complete security and risk management is a wise choice. Now there are more opportunities available to start a new investment platform on your own. If you wanna be an entrepreneur, you can choose one among the Ready to use investment software and run your own website. Finally, If you don't find a way to earn while sleeping, you will work until you die!
submitted by kirhyip to u/kirhyip [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Basics Reddit - Forex Glossary Terms For Beginners

Forex Trading Basics Reddit - Forex Glossary Terms For Beginners

What is Forex - Terminology

https://preview.redd.it/pmjpy8sqh1x51.jpg?width=580&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b02715d6d6f153592a967f577c18578363ca731c
The FOREX market is the largest financial market in the world. On a daily basis, trillions of dollars are traded in different currencies around the world.
Being FOREX the basis for international capital transactions, its liquidity and volume are much greater than any other financial market. It is estimated that the average volume traded by the world's largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in a full month, is equal to the volume traded daily in the Forex currency market. In addition, it is estimated that this volume will increase by 25% annually.
80% of transactions are between the US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Australian dollars (AUD) and Canadian (CAD).

What is traded in the Forex market?

We could just say that money. Trading in FOREX simultaneously involves buying one currency (for example euros) and selling another (for example US dollars). These simultaneous purchase and sale operations are carried out through online brokers. Operations are specified in pairs; for example the euro and the dollar (EUR / USD) or the pound sterling and the Yen (GBP / JPY).
These types of transactions can be somewhat confusing at first since nothing is being purchased physically. Basically, each currency is tied to the economy of its respective country and its value is a direct reflection of people's perception of that economy. For example, if there is a perception that the economy in Japan is going to weaken, the Yen is likely to be devalued against other currencies. In other words, people are going to sell Yen and they are going to buy currencies from countries where the economy is or will be better than Japan.
In general, the exchange of one currency for another reflects the condition of the health of the economy of that country with respect to the health of the economy of other countries.
Unlike other financial markets such as the stock market, the currency market does not have a fixed location like the largest exchanges in the world. These types of markets are known as OTC (Over The Counter). Transactions take place independently around the world, mainly over the Internet, and prices can vary from place to place.
Due to its decentralized nature, the foreign exchange market is operated 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday.
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Forex Trading Basics - Basic Forex Terminology

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As with any new skill that is learned, it is also necessary to learn its terminology. There are certain terms that you must know before you start trading Forex. Here are the main ones.

• Major and minor currencies

The 8 most widely used currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, and AUD) are known as “ major currencies ”. All other currencies are called " minor currencies ." You don't need to worry about minor currencies, as you probably won't start trading them for now. The USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and CHF currencies are the most popular and most liquid currencies on the market.

• Base currency

The base currency is the first currency in any currency pair. It shows how much the base currency is worth against the second currency. For example, if the USD / CHF has a rate of 1.6350, it means that 1 USD is worth 1.6350 CHF. In the forex market, the US dollar is in many cases the base currency to make quotes, the quotes are expressed in units of $ 1 on the other currency of the pair.
In some other pairs, the base currency is the British pound, the euro, the Australian dollar, or the New Zealand dollar.

• Quoted currency

The quote currency is the second currency in the currency pair. This is often referred to as a "pip-currency" and any unrealized gains or losses are expressed in this currency.

• Pip

A pip is the smallest unit of the price of any currency. Almost all currencies consist of 5 significant digits and most pairs have the decimal point immediately after the first digit. For example EUR / USD = 1.2538, in this case, a pip is the smallest change in the fourth decimal space, which is, 0.0001.
A notable exception is the USD / JPY pair where the pip equals $ 0.01.

• Purchase price (bid)

The buying price (bid) is the price at which the market is ready to buy a specific currency in the Forex market. At this price, one can sell the base currency. The purchase price is displayed on the left side.
For example, in GBP / USD = 1.88112 / 15, the selling price is 1.8812. This means that you can sell a GPB for $ 1.8812.

• Sale Price (ask)

The asking price is the price at which the market is ready to sell a specific currency pair in the Forex market. At this price, you can buy the base currency. The sale price is displayed on the right-hand side.
For example, at EUR / USD = 1.2812 / 15, the selling price here is 1.2815. This means that you can buy one euro for $ 1.2815. The selling price is also called the bid price.

• Spread

All Forex quotes include two prices, the bid (offer) and the ask (demand).
The bid is the price at which the broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the bid is the price at which you can sell.
The ask is the price at which the broker is willing to sell the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the ask is the price at which you will buy. The difference between the bid and the ask is popularly known as the spread and is the consideration that the online broker receives for its services.

• Transaction costs

The transaction cost, which could be said to be the same as the Spread, is calculated as: Transaction Cost = Ask - Bid. It is the number of pips that are paid when opening a position. The final amount also depends on the size of the operation.
It is important to note that depending on the broker and the volatility, the difference between the ask and the bid can increase, making it more expensive to open a trade. This generally happens when there is a lot of volatility and little liquidity, as happens during the announcement of some relevant economic data.

• Cross currency

A cross-currency is any pair where one of the currencies is the US dollar (USD). These pairs show an erratic price behavior when the operator opens two operations in US dollars. For example, opening a long trade to buy EUR / GPB is equivalent to buying EUR / USD and selling GPB / USD. Cross-currency pairs generally carry a higher transaction cost.

• Margin

When you open a new account margin with a Forex broker, you must deposit a minimum amount of money to your broker. This minimum varies depending on each broker and can be as low as € / $ 100 at higher amounts.
Each time a new trade is executed a percentage of your account margin balance will be the initial margin required for a new trade based on the underlying currency pair, current price, and the number of units (or lots) of the trade. .
For example, let's say you open a mini account which gives you a leverage of 1: 200 or a margin of 0.5%. Mini accounts work with mini lots. Suppose a mini lot equals $ 10,000. If you are about to open a mini lot, instead of having to invest $ 10,000, you will only need $ 50 ($ 10,000 x 0.5% = $ 50).

• Leverage

Leverage is the ratio of the capital used in a transaction to the required deposit. It is the ability to control large amounts of dollars with relatively less capital. Leverage varies drastically depending on the broker, it can go from 1: 2 to even 1: 2000. The most common level of leverage in Forex can currently be around 1: 200.

• Margin + leverage = dangerous combination

Trading currencies on margin allows you to increase your buying power. This means that if you have $ 5,000 in account margin that allows you a 1: 100 leverage, you can then buy $ 500,000 in foreign exchange as you only have to invest a percentage of the purchase price. Another way of saying this is that you have $ 500,000 in purchasing power.
With more purchasing power you can greatly increase your potential profits without an outlay of cash. But be careful, working with a high margin increases your profits but also your losses if the trade does not progress in your favor.
>>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated On Investing.com |Free Forex Signals Trial: CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar set for biggest drop in three weeks as U.S. infection cases jump

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 48%. (I'm a bot)
LONDON - The greenback steadied on Friday but was set for its biggest weekly drop in three weeks as caution over growing coronavirus infections cast doubt over the U.S. economic outlook while a bounce in stocks pushed the kiwi dollar higher.
The governor of Texas temporarily halted the state's reopening on Thursday as COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations surged.
With markets undecided between hopes of a quick economic recovery and fears of a second wave of infections, investors focused on the dovish minutes by the European Central Bank this week to keep its stimulus policies in place for a while.
The euro EUR=EBS edged 0.1% higher versus the dollar and was set for its biggest rise in three weeks.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 led currency gainers as encouraging recent data prompted investors to add risk positions despite the surge in infection rates.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fetched $0.6888 AUD=D4, stuck in its rough $0.68-0.70 range in the past couple of weeks.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: week#1 infection#2 dollar#3 currency#4 biggest#5
Post found in /news.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Dollar drifts higher as coronavirus, China data sap confidence

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
SINGAPORE - The dollar steadied on Friday as a jump in U.S. bond yields and a drag on sentiment from lacklustre Chinese economic data put the brakes on a selldown of the world's reserve currency.
The mood had the dollar within reach of snapping a seven-week losing streak against the risk-sensitive Aussie AUD=D3, which has settled around $0.7149 and is flat for the week.
The yen JPY= is on course for its weakest week against the dollar in two months and is down about 0.9% at 106.84 from last Friday's close.
The biggest loser has been the kiwi NZD=D3, which was pressured at $0.6538, as the country faces a fresh coronavirus outbreak and after the central bank this week flagged increased bond buying and again mentioned the prospect of negative rates.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar remains 0.2% lower for the week, but it has appeared to arrest a slide that has it about 9.5% below its March peak.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sparked a bond rally this week by promising to extend its own purchases and, next week, speed them up as well.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: week#1 dollar#2 new#3 Friday#4 U.S.#5
Post found in /Coronavirus, /Economics, /Coronavirus and /CoronavirusRecession.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

1000pip Climber System Discount Code, Official Coupon Code

1000pip Climber System Discount Code, Coupon Code is now available. Click the link below to activate the official 1000pip Climber System coupon code now, enjoy!
Here Is 1000pip Climber System Discount Code. Enjoy
I’ve been using the system for a while now. So far, so good for me-I find I am making profits consistently. Losses do happen to me, although in my case, they have been few in number.
I try to keep in mind that no system is 100% foolproof when it comes to trading, but I have won more than lost, so that’s a plus in my book.
One thing I would advise new users about is that you have to be wary of United States news releases. Five out of six currency pairs are based on the US Dollar.
Performance can be affected; I would get a news app for your phone or have the TV running the news in the background if you can.
In case you are curious, the six currency pairs are the following: EUR to USD, AUD to USD, USD to CHF, USD to JPY, USD to CAD, and EUR to JPY.
My bottom line is that it is a great system, very well built, and great for the price I paid. I would certainly recommend this to new Forex traders and veterans alike.
I guess the only improvement I would hope for is that it can be made to work for other trade platforms, not just Metatrader.
Click here to activate the official 1000pip Climber System Coupon Code, Enjoy
submitted by Snushy_101 to LiveCoupon [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

Các cặp tiền chính trong forex

Các cặp tiền chính trong forex
Khi bạn giao dịch forex, tức là giao dịch mua bán các cặp tiền, có rất nhiều cặp tiền để các bạn giao dịch, trong đó có các cặp chính, cặp phụ hay cặp ngoại lai.
Ở bài viết này chúng ta sẽ cùng đi tìm hiểu các cặp chính trong forex là như thế nào?

https://preview.redd.it/3qo2d1xk4t251.jpg?width=490&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ab98eaeabbc71dffbac4e12c0f0443fafdefb95

Cặp tiền tệ là gì?

Tiền tệ trong thị trường ngoại hối cũng như các sản phẩm để chúng ta mua bán. Khi giao dịch trên thị trường forex, bạn thực hiện các lệnh buy hoặc sell trên một cặp tiền.
Tỷ giá của mỗi cặp tiền tệ sẽ dao động theo đồng tiền tệ nào mạnh hơn tại thời điểm giao dịch. Các cặp tiền tệ được biểu thị bằng một loại tiền tệ này so với một loại tiền tệ khác. Chúng được ký hiệu là tiền tệ 1/tiền tệ 2.
Ví dụ : Nếu bạn đang giao dịch đồng đô la Mỹ so với đồng đô la Canada, nó sẽ được ký hiệu là USD/CAD.
USD/CAD là một trong những cặp tiền tệ chính trong thị trường forex.
Nếu bạn đang giao dịch đồng bảng Anh với đồng Yên Nhật, nó sẽ được ký hiệu là GBP/JPY.
Với mỗi cặp tiền, đồng tiền đầu tiên là hàng hóa và đồng tiền thứ hai đi sau là loại tiền để mua.
Ví dụ trong cặp EUUSD, đồng tiền thứ nhất, đồng Euro là hàng hóa và đồng tiền thứ hai, USD là loại tiền để mua nó. Khi ta mua EUUSD, có nghĩa là ta bỏ tiền USD ra để sở hữu đồng Euro. Việc ta giao dịch với loại đồng tiền nào chẳng có gì khác biệt cả. Ta có thể giao dịch với USD, GBP, CAD hoặc bất kỳ đồng tiền nào khác. Khi ta muốn mua EUUSD, nhà môi giới sẽ chuyển đổi số dư tài khoản của ta sang USD rồi dùng số tiền USD đó để mua EUR. Cơ chế làm việc là như vậy. Bất kỳ việc mua bán nào trong thị trường forex đều được thực hiện qua trung gian đồng USD.
Cũng chính vì đồng đô la Mỹ là đồng tiền chính nên việc mua bán tất cả các đồng tiền khác đều phải thông qua đồng USD.

2.Phân loại các cặp tiền tệ

2.1Cặp tiền tệ chính

Trong thị trường forex, cặp tiền tệ chính là tất cả các cặp chứa Đô la Mỹ (USD).
Bởi vì đồng đô là Mỹ là đồng rất mạnh, nên cặp tiền tệ nào có đồng USD thì sẽ mặc định là cặp tiền tệ chính.
Đây cũng là những cặp giao dịch thường xuyên nhất và có tính thanh khoản cao nhất trên thị trường forex.
Cặp ngoại hối EUUSD được giao dịch nhiều nhất trong thị trường forex.
Dưới đây là các cặp tiền tệ chính và các thuật ngữ mà các nhà giao dịch FOREX hay sử dụng.
+ EUUSD
+ GBP/USD
+ USD/JPY
+ USD/CAD
+ AUD/USD
+ USD/CHF
+ NZD/USD
Chúng ta sẽ đi chi tiết từng cặp tiền ở bên dưới

2.2 Cặp tiền tệ chéo

Cặp tiền tệ chéo là các cặp ngoại tệ không chứa đồng đô la Mỹ USD.
Dưới đây là các cặp tiền chéo của 3 loại tiền tệ lớn là Euro, Yên Nhật và Bảng Anh.
+ EUJPY
+ GBP/JPY
+ GBP/AUD
+ EUAUD
+ EUCAD
+ GBP/CAD
….
Trong đó, cặp tiền thông dụng nhất đối với các nhà giao dich tiền tệ là GBP/JPY, EUJPY và cả GBP/USD.
Riêng đối với cặp GBP/JPY là một trong những cặp tiền tệ được các trader thích mạo hiểm vô cùng ưa thích, vì biên động dao động lớn, dễ kiếm lợi nhuận. Và bởi vì lý do là nó biến động lớn và mạnh. Các tín hiệu mua bán của nó rõ ràng và mạnh mẽ, cũng như biên độ dao động lớn. Các nhà giao dịch tiền tệ mua bán GBP/JPY để thu lợi nhuận, nhưng con dao nào cũng có hai lưỡi. Việc thua lỗ cũng cao hơn nhiều.

3. Các cặp tiền tệ chính nào được giao dịch nhiều nhất

Trong số 7 cặp tiền chính, EUUSD là cặp tiền thông dụng nhất và có khối lượng giao dịch lớn nhất.
Thực tế cho thấy có trên 70% các giao dịch trong thị trường forex tập trung vào cặp EUUSD. Nhưng điều đó không có nghĩa rằng có đến 70% người tham gia giao dịch cặp tiền này
Các nhà giao dịch ngoại tệ cá nhân chỉ là một số lượng rất nhỏ của thị trường. Các giao dịch lớn được thực hiện do các Ngân hàng Trung ương và các liên ngân hàng.
Chúng ta cùng đi chi tiết từng cặp tiền tệ chính:
+ EUUSD: đây là cặp tiền chiếm hơn 70% lượng giao dịch trên thế giới, cũng là cặp tiền phổ biến nhất trong giao dịch forex vì cặp tiền có sự biến động cao và giá cao. Trong sự Giao dịch, cặp tiền EUUSD có tiền tệ chính là EUR (Euro) và tiền tệ tham chiếu là USD (US Dollar).
Biểu đồ tỷ giá của cặp ngoại hối EUUSD trong thị trường ngoại hối.
+ GBP/USD có tiền tệ chính là GBP (British Pound), tức tiền Bảng của nước Anh và tiền tệ tham chiếu là USD.
+ USD/JPY: có tiền tệ chính là USD (US Dollar) và tiền tệ tham chiếu là JPY (Japanese Yen) hoặc tiền yên của Nhật Bản.
+ USD/CHF có tiền tệ chính là USD Dollar Mỹ và tiền tệ tham chiếu là CHF (Swiss Franc) tiền tệ của nước Thủy Sĩ.
+ USD/CAD có tiền tệ chính là USD Dollar Mỹ và tiền tệ tham chiếu là CAD (Canadian Dollar) tiền tệ của nước Canada được gọi là Dollar Canada.
+ AUD/USD có tiền tệ chính là AUD (Australian Dollar) tiền tệ cua nước Úc và tiền tệ tham chiếu là USD Dollar Mỹ.
+ NZD/USD có tiền tệ chính là NZD (New Zealand Dollar) tiền tệ của nước New Zealand và tiền tệ tham chiếu là USD.
Trên là 7 cặp tiền tệ chính được giao dịch phổ biến nhất trên thị trường ngoại hối, bạn thích giao dịch với các cặp tiền nào? Chắc chắn bạn cũng có danh sách những cặp tiền tệ ưa thích cho riêng mình.
Chúc các bạn may mắn!
Xem thêm: https://kienthucforex.com/cac-cap-tien-te-chinh-trong-thi-truong-forex/
submitted by kienthucforex to u/kienthucforex [link] [comments]

Virus containment hopes support Asian currencies

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
Across mainland China there were 2,015 new confirmed infections as of Tuesday, the lowest daily rise since Jan. 30.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to China's fortunes because of Australia's commodity-driven export profile, firmed 0.3% to $0.6728 AUD=D3.
Oil prices, a barometer of global energy demand and so of growth, remain nearly a fifth lower than they were before the outbreak.
The currencies of oil exporters such as Canada and Norway have been hammered, with the krone NOK= shedding 5% this year and the loonie CAD=D3 hitting a four-month low on Monday.
"The main impact of coronavirus for Europe is growth," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.
"The euro area started the year with low growth and an ECB largely out of policy options...(a) bad scenario could see an extension of recent moves and EUUSD may head towards the $1.04/05 lows of the European debt crisis."
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: low#1 growth#2 China#3 coronavirus#4 hit#5
Post found in /worldnews and /NotClickBaitNews.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Question about forex trading as a European

Hello guys, I'm new to forex trading and I'm still learning the basics so please don't judge me if my question is stupid. Ok so i noticed that in pairs with the usd, the usd is usually the quote currency, which is very convenient for americans because you are selling the currency you already have and buy something else (like with the EUUSD you are selling dollars and buying euros). But in pairs with the eur, the eur is usually the base currency (EUUSD, EUGBP, EUAUD... ). So how does it really work for a European that trades with euros? like i already have euros, why would i sell usd to buy more euros (EUUSD) ? it sounds stupid. Am i missing something? I hope that you can understand my question i tried to phrase it the best i could.
submitted by mariapsrk to Forex [link] [comments]

TODAY’S NZD WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S NZD WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the NZD was weak on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The GBP/NZD moved up, this pair had good movement but it is choppy on the charts overall. So scale out lots on any buys until it fully breaks out on the higher time frames. The GBP/AUD also moved up, this pair is still inside of resistance levels and clusters, so this looks like a short term movement only. The NZD/JPY dropped. This pair might be forming a new H4 downtrend with more potential down to about the 62.00 area support. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/isr4d8cju2q41.jpg?width=424&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dfb0d1a3db94bbb6c8f90296ba453f13c6bb6571
https://preview.redd.it/dxfyxdcju2q41.jpg?width=523&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=171c1e74a799704a01c38964f84ca8d60b32294b
https://preview.redd.it/n5fre7cju2q41.jpg?width=431&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f619f7619cce3898b74ba273d46ad1614a8a4fe2
#GBPNZD #NZDJPY #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex New Zealand Dollar GBP/NZD NZD/JPY
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

TODAY’S NZD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S NZD STRENGTH AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the NZD was strong on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The AUD/NZD dropped to new historical lows and was fairly stable on the charts. It has no historical support we can see and is in a strong downtrend. It has ongoing potential on the higher time frames. Market volatility continue to be very high. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap


https://preview.redd.it/4uqa6z22j5n41.jpg?width=421&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f36888e100cad1576d2f96d6765b801ffabf59f9
https://preview.redd.it/wzz2ay22j5n41.jpg?width=651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26b13d29b6995062f3e29ba5663805a10c8f74cb
#AUDNZD #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex New Zealand Dollar US Dollar AUD/NZD
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures
Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
  • Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
  • Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost the Aussie, but they’re unpredictable
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question.
Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.
submitted by dailymarketsignals to u/dailymarketsignals [link] [comments]

TODAY’S JPY WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS

TODAY’S JPY WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the JPY was weak on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the Asian and main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The AUD/JPY and EUJPY both moved higher. The EUJPY is now trending up on the H4 time frame, it should continue higher 1-2 more days. The AUD/JPY moved up on the smaller time frames only, this looks like a shorter term trade, so we would consider exiting any new buys. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/the-forex-heatmap

https://preview.redd.it/r7hxd4cbrwy31.jpg?width=428&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c2bfac526af0e7f4ae94e461dced6b996b1f0214

https://preview.redd.it/1c9999qcrwy31.jpg?width=485&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a9b0a73acc313027a0040b01080268fbcbafe3b4
Download our FREE mobile app and always know when the forex market is starting new movement cycles across 8 different currencies.
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/blog/2019/07/19/forex-mobile-app/
#AUDJPY #EURJPY #forexsignals #forextrading #trading #daytrading #forexalerts #currencytrading #forex Australian Dollar AUD/JPY EUJPY
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

6 Major Currency Pairs

There are many popular currency pairs and there is a difference in outlook in all the major currency pairs and the list is always not definite. The list of 6 major currency pairs which will be presented is not best to worst but randomly selecting 6 major currency pairs

1) EUUSD:

Our first pick is EUUSD as it is one of the highest traded forex pairs around the globe. The euro, in this case, is base currency while the us dollar is the quote currency meaning that how many dollars you will need in order to purchase one euro. This currency pair is less volatile than other pairs as both of these currencies are backed by world’s two greatest economies.

2) GBP/USD:

In this currency pair, the GBP is used as base currency and USD as a quote currency showing how many US dollars you will be needing to purchase one pound. This currency pair is also known as ‘cable’ as they used deep-sea cables in order to transfer price info between New York and London.

3) USD/JPY:

In this case, the difference between the two currencies is very large but still this is a very major currency pair because of the low-interest rate policies of the bank of japan. In this currency pair the USD is used as base currency and JPY as a quote currency showing how many Japanese Yen you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar.

4) USD/CHF:

Just like yen, the Swiss franc is popular for its safe-haven investment that’s is why the Swiss Franc currency is popular among traders as it has lower amount of risk. In this currency pair the USD is used as base currency and CHF as a quote currency showing how many Swiss franc currency you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar.

5) AUD/USD:

In this currency pair, the USD is used as base currency and AUD as a quote currency showing how many Australian Dollars you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar. If you want to start trading between this pair you have to keep updated on the commodities as it tends to affect the overall currency fluctuation in Australian dollars.

6) USD/CAD:

In this currency pair, the USD is used as base currency and CAD as a quote currency showing how many Canadian Dollars you will be needing to purchase one US Dollar. The value of Canadian dollars depends on the price of oil as Canada’s main export is Oil. So when trading keeping price of oil in mind can drastically change the overall result.
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submitted by Andrew-Mark to u/Andrew-Mark [link] [comments]

DAILY DISCUSSION THREAD (Wednesday night into Thursday, February 15)

WELCOME TO YOUR DAILY THREAD TRADERS!
Wednesday night into Thursday, February 15

It is Thursday Feb 14 in the Asia zone, 新年快樂!

Please contribute, let's keep these threads going.
As always, see the sidebar for posting rules. Feel free to be vociferous, keep it civil, and feel free to ask questions, as well as post your analysis of the market.
Trades: DO NOT COPYCAT. Do your own analysis, even if you see a good idea. Basically, you do you.

MONEY TALKS

submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Currency Trading Company Facilitates Trades

Another way on how to master the electronic Forex Millennium Review currency trading is by taking formal training, meaning you have to sit in a classroom with other students like yourself who have the same aspiration of making big in the currency business. Generally, the lessons involved in the electronic currency trading classes are really designed to help not only the newbie traders but also the experts who want to sharpen their knowledge when it comes to trading.

Considered as the largest trading market on earth, currency trading is pegged to be trading over USD 2 trillion everyday. This figure greatly dwarfs the performance of the New York Stock Exchange, which gathers an estimated USD 50 billion each day. This comparison alone while help you imagine just how big a business currency trading is. Before anything else, you might be prompted to ask, "What is currency trading?"

Also known as Foreign Exchange, Forex, or FX, currency trading attracts a lot of investors in that it is a very liquid market to invest in. The potential for profit is huge but the risks too, are very high. Unlike the stock exchange, forex accumulates a huge volume of traders. The margins may be low, but the significantly big number of traders makes up for it. In effect, when you profit, and you invested a significant amount, you'd cash in on a very high profit. What is currency trading to some investors who can afford to lose is such a big risk to those who aren't too fluent about the business yet.

A nation's currency has a value in relation to another currency. As one buys and sells currency, one finds out that there are pairs of currencies that get traded 85% of total volume: US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR) and USD, USD and Swiss Franc (CHF), USD and Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) and USD, and British Pound (GBP) and USD.
https://supplementaudit.com/forex-millennium-review/
submitted by monamerlin to u/monamerlin [link] [comments]

How can we get profit by trading in forex?

Before knowing about profit first you should know what forex means. It is a currency exchange marketing forex is a virtual platform for profit-making it is a world market whole world can trade in this market. if you want to make money in forex you should go on because this platform is the most successful platform for money making.
Now how to get profit in forex, you can buy or sell currency the forex market runs 24 hours a day generally it is closed on Saturday and Sundays and first, you should determine whether you want to buy or sell if you want to buy which means you should buy the base currency and sell the quote currency. You want the base currency to fall in value then you would buy it back at the lower price
Traded in forex the simple answer is making ‘money’ because you are not buying anything physical think buying a currency of other countries same as buying the share like stock exchange.you can trade in many currencies but as a newcomer, you mainly focus on “major currency” CAD(Canadian dollar) USD(United States dollar) GBP(Great Britain pound) EUR(European euro) JPY(Japanese yen) AUD(Australian dollar) CHF(Swiss franc) NZD(New Zealand dollar) the currency included in upper lines are the major currency because it is the all-time first choice of the traders
Because forex is so good at profit-making numbers of different ways to invest and trade in it and there many benefits and advantages of forex trading and how no. of people from all over the world trading in forex some advantages of forex is, no commission, fixed lot size, low transaction cost, a 24 hour market, no one can corner the market, leverage, high liquidity, low barriers to entry, free stuff everywhere, etc
Effect of Leverage in forex? Leverage is mostly used in forex trading market leverage allowed the traders to use the purchase multiple time in multiple statements leverage in many investments included by the forex market applies both profit and loss thus the forex market can get the traders to bring gain in their investments to higher level
And now you should know everything about what is forex why is forex trading is profitable and how you make up with forex trading market and now you see when you can trade on it in before line I say that forex market is open in 24 hours a day but fact is that it doesn’t mean it always active the entire day if you want to make money you should focus on when market moves up and also you can make money when market is moved down this will take your time but it will gain you more profit.
If you want to make money in forex you should go on with guidance which was provided if you are interested in trading in forex and to make more money to get the gaining profit
For, more details you can visit Forex Trading Strategies that work
submitted by Linda0987 to u/Linda0987 [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis (16 Feb 2014)

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

Let's Talk Fundamentals (because they might be important this week)

This is more of a brain dump to encourage discussion, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Something strange happened this week.
Stocks fell off - mostly Japanese stocks, but equity markets everywhere suffered nasty losses. The S&P 500 shat a nasty reversal candle on Thursday, and the Nikkei posted one of its largest falls in history on Friday.
At the same time bonds fell (yields rose). The US Dollar also fell.
That's not how it's supposed to work.
When stocks fall, bond yields fall (bond prices rise) because more people buy them. Where the hell was the money going?
Into the Yen and the Swiss Franc, mostly. The Yen because most of the action was in Japan. The USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 are HEAVILY correlated. I can't tell if the fall in stocks preceded the fall in USD/JPY (and AUD/JPY, which many say led the way), or if it was the other way around, but either way we had classic risk aversion kicking in.
USD/JPY posted its largest weekly decline since 2011.
There was some jawboning, and data from Japan to suggest that the new QE measures are working.
But wait a second: they've only just started. That money hasn't really filtered down to anywhere where it's actually being used to power the economy. The only real effect so far has been a massive uplift in stocks. This is because a lot of the Nikkei 225 is made up of exporters and multi-nationals, and a falling Yen boosts their expected profits - nobody's actually made any money yet.
The technicals still only say "retracement", not "reversal", but we're hanging in by a thread - especially USD/JPY. If we break Friday's low, 100 is in sight. If this break is for real, this psychological barrier will mean absolutely nothing.
After this 97.00 is next, then 95.00/94.50, then 92. I don't think any fall would get down to 92, or even 94, but 97 is highly possible by the end of this week - and if we get there, it could be in a matter of minutes.
Before I go on, COT data
(For newbie traders, COT means Commitment of Traders, and it's a series of complicated charts showing net speculative futures positioning. When you overly it onto price data, you will find that extremes of short positioning tend to precede massive rallies. This is because a LOT of people get increasingly short as price starts to fall, which reaches an extreme as it continues to fall. Price starts to come back up, and the extreme extends a little bit more, before you get a short squeeze and everyone buys furiously to get out of unprofitable short positions)
Aussie COT showed a massive extreme in short positioning: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774559
So did the Japanese Yen: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774580
The most telling is the S&P500: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774599
The light blue line says that the big money is getting more and more out of stocks (or since it's futures positioning, they're starting to bet it will fall)
All other things being equal, this means these two are probably due a large correction. All other things might not be equal, however. Extremes in quiet times can become the norm in unusual circumstances - bear this in mind.
This is the scenario if Asian stocks lead the fall. Longs are clearly nervous, but the docket is light this week. This alone could be enough - with minor bad news sparking panic selling. The US Dollar could see some initial selling purely on USD/JPY, pushing the majors higher. This will happen during the Asian session. If it happens in the morning, you will see European markets open lower, and we might get early USD weakness as USD/JPY sells off.
But it won't last. The risk aversion will spill into European and US stocks as these markets open, and they may gap significantly lower. In this case the Swiss Franc will strengthen first, followed by the US Dollar. So I don't like USD/CHF so much here. The US Dollar will almost certainly surge once US markets open.
If this is the real deal, (and that is the biggest fucking "IF" ever because many have called this reversal lots of times and have given up after being wrong repeatedly) this dollar surge will be enormous. The world will be waking up from its dream of a fragile recovery that has been overblown by surging stock markets.
Stock markets have been rallying for mixed reasons. Some of it is investor confidence, but most of it is simply the search for yield, which most cash investments can't provide at the moment. Dividend yields in stocks are good, and fund managers have been buying them because they need to beat indices, which are rising more quickly than the values of their portfolios. This cycle has fed itself, and stocks have risen, even though demand for those companies' products and services has remained tepid.
If this happens, the Yen crosses will be blown to bits, as will the majors. But don't just go short everything if you see it falling. It will be difficult to know whether it's the real thing, and you'll have to be in front of your trading screen at the time (unless you want to set breakout orders)
We are seeing all the signs of a minor bubble bursting.
The headlines have been all about markets hitting new highs, and everybody buying stocks. That is usually a sign that the smart money has started selling their large holdings to incoming retail investors, and that a lot of the profit from the bull run has been made. If stocks start to look wobbly up here, the last ones in will be the first ones out.
Look at USD/JPY or the other Yen crosses zoomed out to 2005. The rise is absurd. I showed it to my girlfriend, who doesn't know the first thing about Forex, and she said it looked unnatural and if she had to guess, the next move would be "down a bit". This kind of woke me up a little - it was so obvious because the move up seems to be against the laws of nature, even if backed by fundamentals. Humans are good at pattern recognition, and even she could look at previous price action and recognize that a sharp rise like this almost never happens without a bit of falling.
It all depends on where you bought.
For example, if you had held USD/JPY since 92.00, and you planned to hold it for the rest of the year, you wouldn't worry so much about a drop to 97 (though it would be annoying). If you were long on a break of 100.00, you would be getting the fuck out. Your stop might be at 100, or maybe you'd locked in 50 pips. The point is that longs are now nervous, and bids will be hard to find below 100. Most people are probably prepared to take a chance buying a dip into around 100 (I know I am), but not below there.
Below there are stop losses. Hundreds of millions of them.
So that's my take on things. I'm not saying the world will end this week, but we all know that what goes up very quickly when there isn't a good reason to do so, usually comes down pretty quickly as well.
Others would argue with my fundamentals. I've seen articles saying that the rise in stocks can be attributed to companies holding on to cash reserves and paying high dividends, because they are worried that the recovery might not come. When they finally do see it coming, they will start spending that cash on growing and employing people - so maybe stocks are leading the global economy in this recovery.
I say horse shit. Demand has to precede supply, and right now the powerhouses of the global economy have more supply capacity than there is demand for. We have got into this situation because corporate profits have stayed very good during the last few years, but household incomes have fallen in real terms, and the average consumer is no better off, even though central bank governors are starting to say otherwise.
You and I are still earning far less money than we should be, and spending proportionally more and more of it every year as wage growth struggles to keep up with inflation, which is already low in most developed countries. Corporate profits continue to do well, but this money is not being spent in the real economy and used to create jobs.
I'm not going to go all marxist here for my last thoughts, but it is important to realise that there is a continuing and growing concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. They might say that they are the job creators, and many of them are. But for the most part they are the wealth hoarders. That money goes into things that cause the economy to appear to be growing, but do not actually grow the real economy - company stock, large assets, investments.
They also buy things from companies that are seeing their profits grow faster than the wages they pay. Where a dozen board executives get huge bonuses and a hundred thousand shareholders see their balance sheets grow, the people who are actually spending their portion of that company's profits (the employees) don't have any more money to inject into the economy than they did last year.
These market forces are going to collide sooner or later. Either:
I'm not saying it will happen this week, or at all. All I'm saying is that stocks are rising very quickly on not much at all. There are precedents for this throughout history, and it never ends well. When you hear hoof beats, don't think zebras.
TL;DR Forecast is choppy, with a light chance of apocalypse
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

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AUD/USD conforms to choppy US dollar conditions, hits fresh weekly lows By FXStreet - 1 hour ago AUD/USD currently trades a little softer on the day, down around 20 pips or 0.3% and just above ... aud - australian dollar usd jpy - japanese yen eur trading the news nzd - new zealand dollar. 04.11.2020 10:26 US dollar strength as Trump gains on key states The odds of Trump re-taking the White House has risen quite substantially since yesterday. EUR/USD have dropped on this nearly a figure to from the 1.17's to 1.16's while now is trading in the middle of that range. technical analysis aud ... Real-time forex news and the latest trading updates. What you need to know now about the GBP, Dollar, Yen, Euro and minors. Forex Today: Dollar remains strong, US coronavirus-related news may weigh NEWS 20:28 GMT By FXStreet Team. Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 12: Volatility kept shrinking on ... Latest AUD market news, analysis and Australian Dollar trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team. Free AUD/JPY information including Live Rate, News, and Analysis. Use our advanced live rate chart to track AUDJPY. I doubt that it is a longer-term move, because even if the US dollar is going to get hit, it is a relative game we play in Forex, so you have to look at the other economies around the world. Eventually, the negative interest rates in Australia will weigh upon the currency, so I am looking for selling opportunities. But I do not necessarily have the set up yet. If we were to break down below ... Latest USD market news, analysis and US Dollar trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team. AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Tests Resistance. Christopher Lewis on November 11, 2020 ... liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information contained within this website including market news, analysis, trading signals and Forex broker reviews. The data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate, and analyses are the opinions of the author ... The dollar held broad gains on Thursday as investors adjusted some of their bullish expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine, tempering a recent rally in risk assets but keeping enough confidence to ...

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Forex News: 04/11/2020 - Dollar firms, stocks rattled as ...

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